Arlong sta 15 vs 30

[blilily]

Hi guys,

I understand that the stamina 30 stage gives more EXP than the stamina 15 stage from a EXP per stamina point of view.
However, in the perspective of farming for red turtles (in leveling for potential Whitebeard and leveling my g3 luffy), would it make more sense to farm turtles on the stamina 15 stage?
I've only been doing the 30 stamina level when this event started and haven't really had alot of experience with the 15 stamina level one.
Please correct me if the turtle count for the 15 stamina is incorrect due to my lack of playthroughs for that 15 stamina level.

I'm going to approximate this by how often there is a drop in each stage. What I mean by drop is beli bag, chest or WANTED poster.
So on an average of 7 stages, I get about 4 to 5 characters with a beli bag. So 5-6 drops per playthrough. Essentially 5/7 - 6/7 or 71% to 86%. I do realize it seems to be harder for the last stage (arlong) to drop but I don't know any mathematical way I can biase it.
Haven't had an arlong character drop either, only skillbooks in sta 30

In my personal play experience with the game, I don't think it matters whether you target your desired target first or last.

Stamina 30 - 2 turtle stages
#3 -  normally 3 big turtles, 1 baby turtle and 1 mob. So, 3 / 5, 60% chance of a big turtle if there is a drop. Also factor in drop rates may not happen so it would be 60% * (71-85%) = 43% to 51% of striking a big turtle in the 3rd stage.
#6 -  1 big turtle with normally 4 or 5 mobs/crabs. Let’s assume 5 mobs, so 1/ 6 , 17% chance of a big turtle if there is a drop. Factoring in drop rates, 17% * (71-85%) gets 12% to 14% of striking a big turtle in the 6th stage.
Cumulatively:
2 total turtles would be (43 to 51%) * (12 to 14%) = 5 to 7 %
1 total turtle would be (43 to 51)*(86 to 88% ) + (49 to 57%)* (12 to 14%) = ( 37% to 45% ) + (6% to 8%) = 43 to 53%
No total turtles =  (49 to 57%)* (86 to 88% ) = 42% to 50%
Now that I estimated the percentages, it sorta reflects what I've been getting. haha

Stamina 15 Turtle
#4 - 2 big turtles with 2 mobs (please verify). So 50% chance of a big turtle if there is a drop. 36% to 43% with drop rates factored in.

Since it is worth only 15 stamina, I can run this twice.

So I have (36% to 43%)^2  = 13% to 18% for 2 runs with 2 big turtles
36% to 43% of hitting 1 big turtle in either of the 2 runs.
39% to 51% of not hitting any big turtles in the 2 runs.

Any mathematicians/statisticians out there that can correct me if I wrongful assume anything or did my math wrong?
Any opinions or whether to stick with sta 30 or sta 15?

[⚓✨ V A N I T Y ✨⚓]

After so much farming I will have to say 15 stam elite run does have better drop rate for bug turtle. Don't rule out 30 stam run because of it. All the trash drop from 30 stam is worth over 3000xp in another word all the trashs are baby turtle and then some. Also of you are grinding hardcore 30 sta is way faster vs two 15 sta run.

[blilily]

yeah, that's true the mob drops aren't bad for sta 30.

Maybe I'm just impatient cause waiting for sta 30 takes 5 hours
I feel like it's forever before the next time I play the game LOL

[Prince_Ace]

Same here, I also have the same dilemma x.x I dunno really but yeah 5 hrs is too long

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